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Oct 10, 2019
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Do or die... or delay

by Hugo Gye in Westminster

i Deputy Political Editor

Thursday so far

  • Britain's top doctor claims no-deal Brexit would lead to deaths
  • UK GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in August, new statistics reveal
  • Jeremy Corbyn promises to revive "social security" as he sets out policy agenda

Keep an i out for

  • Boris Johnson meets Leo Varadkar for make-or-break Brexit talks
  • Transport Secretary Grant Shapps and Labour MP Lisa Nandy on Question Time

Irish eyes aren't smiling

Boris Johnson will shortly meet Leo Varadkar for closed-door talks at an undisclosed location in North-West England.

Both sides insist the meeting is a sign that the chances of a Brexit deal in the coming days are not yet dead. Cabinet minister Kwasi Kwarteng said this morning: "The reason the Prime Minister is meeting Leo Varadkar isn't simply to have a social conversation, they are seriously focused on trying to resolve this issue and trying to get a deal on which basis we can leave the EU."

But there is little sign that a compromise is on the cards, thanks to the thorny issue of customs. Boris Johnson is adamant that Northern Ireland must join the rest of the UK in leaving the EU's customs union after Brexit so the province can participate in free-trade agreements with other countries. This is unacceptable to Ireland, and therefore the rest of the EU, because it would create the need for customs checks on all goods moving from Northern Ireland to the Republic.

Ex-Chancellor Philip Hammond - who today vowed he'll run as an independent if he does not have the Tory whip restored - says the only way forward is a UK-EU trade deal which would keep the whole country inside the customs union. Another blast from the past in the form of Jeremy Hunt has weighed in with an open letter to European ministers, warning them that they must soften their red lines or risk a no-deal Brexit (read more from Chloe Chaplain here).

But a solution remains unlikely. No-deal is still on the table - with the Chief Medical Officer warning that outcome could lead to deaths - but so is a delay to Brexit, as mandated by the Benn Act if a deal has not been agreed in the next nine days.

Late last night, Business Secretary Andrea Leadsom suggested the Government's master plan to get around the terms of the act is simply to call up the EU and ask them to refuse an extension. Mr Hammond calls this "bravado". The question of whether this will work is now arguably the central issue in British politics.

Economy measures

The UK's economy shrank by 0.1 per cent in August, the Office for National Statistics has announced. Labour blamed the fall in GDP on "the Conservatives' dangerous no-deal Brexit" and the ongoing impact of austerity. But growth in July was revised upwards to 0.4 per cent, meaning that a recession - usually defined as two consecutive quarters of the economy shrinking - is unlikely.

Unsettled status

European citizens living in the UK could be deported if they don't register for settled status by the end of next year, Security Minister Brandon Lewis tells German newspaper Die Welt. He said: "If EU citizens have not registered by then without an adequate justification, the immigration rules will apply."

In reality, this has always been the logical consequence of the Government's commitment to ending free movement of people after Brexit. But for many, seeing the threat stated in such stark terms will add to the feeling that the "hostile environment" for migrants to Britain has not gone away.

Counting the Costa

As he struggles to push his Brexit plans - deal or no-deal - through Parliament, Boris Johnson will have to do without his "Commons guru" Nikki da Costa, the No 10 director of legislative affairs who is heading off on maternity leave shortly (read more from The Sun here). Ms da Costa worked for Theresa May before resigning in protest at her Withdrawal Agreement and is known for her encyclopaedic knowledge of parliamentary procedure.

She promises she won't be too far away, tweeting: "I did promise the boss I wouldn’t give birth in No 10! Still working though with a great team in place." But not having Ms da Costa on hand day-to-day will only make life harder for the Prime Minister.

iSay

"I'm feeling more optimistic about Brexit than I have for a long time"

Nigel Farage says the near-breakdown of Brexit talks make a no-deal outcome more likely - and calls on Boris Johnson to strike an electoral pact with his Brexit party (read more from the Telegraph here).

News from elsewhere

Just 20 energy companies - led by Saudi Aramco, Chevron and Gazprom - are responsible for a third of all the world carbon emissions, according to a Guardian analysis. (Of course, they wouldn't pump out oil and gas if there wasn't a demand for it from consumers...)

i ask you


Questions for us?

Have any questions about politics you want answered? Email me at hugo.gye@inews.co.uk or tweet me @HugoGye and I'll respond in a future edition of the newsletter.

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